Why in the News
In the third week of July 2026, Yemen's Houthi group announced that it would target Saudi Arabian tankers crossing the Bab el-Mandeb, and some vessels were also attacked. According to Reuters (30 July), two tankers carrying Saudi crude for Indian refiners, the Amazon and the Rhodes, exited the Red Sea around 22 July moving "dark" with their transponders switched off. The question is how much India's supply is at risk if the second chokepoint after Hormuz is disrupted, and what options it has. After July the Houthi-Saudi conflict intensified further: in October attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and airports continued, the East-West pipeline was disrupted, and on 22 October Brent crossed USD 110 a barrel.
Background: two chokepoints
The Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. According to the Indian Express, as traffic through Hormuz fell, Saudi Arabia was exporting its oil by this very route, including oil bound for India. Citing S&P Global data, average daily traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb fell from 43 in the first half of July to 31 in the last three days. According to the article, India meets more than 88% of its oil needs through imports, and before the war more than 40% of its oil imports came from West Asia via Hormuz.
Immediate impact
- Route and cost. If tankers head west of Suez and go around Africa, the journey grows by up to four weeks and the cost of freight and insurance rises (IE).
- Refiners' stance. According to Reuters, Indian refiners are taking Middle East cargoes on a "delivered" basis, and MRPL in its fresh tender asked only for cargoes that arrive avoiding both the Red Sea and Hormuz.
- The government's role. According to Reuters it was not clear whether the Government of India had spoken to the Houthis or Iranian officials about a safe passage; the Ministry of External Affairs, Indian Oil and MRPL had not replied to requests for comment.
India's options and their limits
- Russian oil. According to IE, imports from Russia rose from about 10 lakh barrels per day (bpd) in February to a record of about 26 lakh bpd in June, which is more than 50% of total imports. Analysts say this is the biggest buffer, but the room for growth is limited because China and Turkiye are also competing for the same oil; according to one analyst, the earlier discount of about USD 7 a barrel on Urals has now ended and turned into a premium.
- Bypassed West Asian oil. The UAE's Murban can be loaded from Fujairah, which lies outside Hormuz, and reaches the Indian coast in five to six days (IE).
- American/South American oil. Not an emergency option because of the long voyage (IE).
- Stocks. According to a Kpler analyst, refiners can also draw on commercial crude stocks.
Analysis
- The test of diversification. Dependence on Russia has risen rather than fallen; this makes the disruption of the Saudi route look tolerable, but the risk of dependence shifts towards Russia.
- The new centre of risk. According to an analyst quoted in IE, Russia's Black Sea terminals, especially Novorossiysk, may matter more for India than the Red Sea, because alternative routes for oil from there are limited. In the analyst's assessment, the Novorossiysk complex supplied about 28% of India's Russian imports in June.
- The medium-term risk to Russian exports. When Russian refineries return, exports may fall as domestic consumption gets priority (an analyst's estimate, not an established fact).
- The assessment is still fluid. BPCL's CMD spoke of clarity in about one to two weeks; all conclusions can change as the situation changes.
October 2026: the position
According to Reuters (4-5 October), fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continued; Aramco sites were attacked and Brent stayed around USD 100 a barrel. According to The National (22 October), the flow through the East-West (Yanbu) pipeline stopped on 5 October after a pumping station east of Riyadh was damaged in a Houthi attack - this is the very route considered the main bypass of Hormuz. On 21 October, two people were killed by debris from a drone attack near the Shaybah oil field; operations were unaffected. One person died in the attack on Dammam airport the same day. On 22 October Brent reached USD 110.63 a barrel. This weakens the strength of the bypass buffer described in the July assessment above.
From the Exam's Perspective
Prelims: the geographical locations of the Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, the Gulf of Aden and Hormuz; the concept of energy security.
Mains Practice Question
Mains (GS-2 International Relations/GS-3 Economy): "Discuss the impact on India's energy security when maritime chokepoints in West Asia are disrupted, and its options." Structure: import dependence, the two chokepoints, options (Russia, bypass routes, stocks), new vulnerabilities, and long-term measures. Figures for strategic petroleum reserves or renewable energy are not given in this article; add them in your answer from an official source.
Sources and limits
- The Indian Express (Explained), 28 July 2026: Open the article (indianexpress.com)
- Reuters, Nidhi Verma, 30 July 2026: Open the article (reuters.com)
- Reuters, 4-5 October 2026 (Aramco sites, G7 stock release, Brent ~USD 100): Open the article (reuters.com)
- The National, 22 October 2026 (Shaybah attack, Dammam airport, East-West pipeline halted, Brent USD 110+): Open the article (thenationalnews.com)
Limits: four press reports were read in full (two of July, two of October); no government or company primary document. S&P Global, Kpler and other figures are quoted through IE. IE gave "20 June" as the date the Shekharis terminal at Novorossiysk stopped, while the article is of 28 July and the terminal is described as shut the previous week; the date is inconsistent, so it is not given here. The position after July was checked up to the two October reports above (Reuters 4-5 October, The National 22 October); events after that are not covered. The date of the Houthi announcement is available only as "last week" (IE, 28 July); a U-turn report of 21 July was found in another Reuters article but not read in full. A separate article on Hormuz is pending; this article is on the Red Sea side, distinct from it.
