Why in the News
30 October: remnant weakens into a low-pressure area; exceptional rainfall in south Odisha
The actual position (IMD press release, 1345 IST, 30 October): the remnant of Cyclone Arnab — a well-marked low pressure over central Chhattisgarh and adjoining Odisha on 29 October — weakened into a low-pressure area over north Chhattisgarh and adjoining east Madhya Pradesh at 0830 IST on 30 October. The system is under the constant watch of the Raipur Doppler weather radar. This is the position as of 1345 IST on 30 October, not the position at the time you are reading this article.
The sequence of weakening (from IMD's press releases of 29 and 30 October; all stages that have occurred): 28 October 1730 IST — from a severe cyclonic storm (coastal Andhra/Yanam) to a cyclonic storm; 28 October 2330 IST — deep depression (north coastal Andhra/south Odisha/south Chhattisgarh/north-east Telangana); 29 October 0530 IST — depression (south Chhattisgarh/adjoining south Odisha); 29 October 0830 IST — centre at 19.4°N/81.9°E, about 40 km north-north-west of Jagdalpur (Chhattisgarh); 29 October — well-marked low pressure (central Chhattisgarh/adjoining Odisha); 30 October 0830 IST — low-pressure area (north Chhattisgarh/adjoining east Madhya Pradesh).
Exceptional rainfall (IMD press release no. 7, 29 October; 24 hours ending 0830 IST on 29 October, measured): in south Odisha the highest rainfall was recorded at Patrapur (Ganjam) at 546 mm, followed by Sorada (Ganjam) 503, G. Udayagiri (Kandhamal) 462, Mahendragarh (Gajapati) 458, Sanakhemundi (Ganjam) 388 and Chikiti (Ganjam) 309 mm. In the next 24 hours (ending 0830 IST on 30 October), extremely heavy rain (21 cm or more) was recorded in Chhattisgarh, heavy to very heavy rain (12-20 cm) in Odisha, and heavy rain (7-11 cm) in Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh and coastal Andhra.
Warnings and forecast (IMD's release of 30 October; these are not events that have occurred, but probabilities for the coming days): under the remnant's influence, isolated heavy rain is warned for 30 October in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and sub-Himalayan West Bengal-Sikkim. Also, at 0830 IST on 30 October a new low-pressure area formed over the south Andaman Sea and the adjoining Andaman-Nicobar region, which is quite likely to become a depression over the south-east Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas by about 31 October; from this, IMD forecasts isolated heavy to very heavy rain in coastal Andhra on 2-3 November. A cyclonic circulation also lies over north Punjab and adjoining areas at the lower atmospheric level.
Limit: all the cyclone weakening, rainfall figures and forecasts above are from IMD's own press releases (29 and 30 October).
Earlier update, 29 October: Arnab weakened into a depression, IMD's next forecast
Observation 2330 IST, 28 October 2026 (bulletin issued 0300 IST, 29 October): according to IMD's national bulletin no. 30, the cyclonic storm Arnab weakened into a deep depression. Its centre was over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining areas of south Odisha, south Chhattisgarh and north-east Telangana at about 17.8°N/81.8°E, that is about 60 km south of Malkangiri (Odisha). Continuous winds of 50-60 kmph with gusts up to 70 kmph were stated. This is the position at 2330 IST, not the position at the time you are reading this article.
A later report: Akashvani's (News on AIR) report of 29 October, 2:00 PM, citing IMD, said that the system weakened further into a depression and its centre lay over south Chhattisgarh and adjoining south Odisha. It also said that widespread rain was recorded in the previous 24 hours in north Andhra Pradesh, north-east Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand and Gangetic plain West Bengal. IMD's bulletin has not been read directly in this report.
An estimate, not an outcome: bulletin no. 30 had stated the probability of the system becoming a depression by the morning of 29 October and a well-marked low-pressure area by the evening. Akashvani's report too stated the probability of a well-marked low-pressure area forming around the evening over north Chhattisgarh and adjoining north-west Odisha. Confirmation of this final stage occurring was not found in the sources available until 29 October; this stage was confirmed in IMD's press release of 30 October (see the "30 October" update above).
Sources: ; Akashvani: Arnab turned into a depression, 29 October 2026 (read). The bulletins below are preserved in the historical context of their own original times.
Earlier observation, 28 October, 1030 IST: Arnab's wind 105-115 kmph
Observation 1030 IST; bulletin issued 1145 IST, 28 October 2026: in IMD's hourly bulletin number 16, Arnab was described as a severe cyclonic storm. Its centre was near the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts at 16.6°N/81.85°E. Near the centre, maximum sustained wind of 105-115 kmph with gusts up to 125 kmph was stated. These are the figures of 1030 IST, not the current position at the time you are reading this article.
The intensity at landfall is different: bulletin no. 16 repeated that Arnab had crossed the coast between 0200 and 0800 IST on 28 October near 16.45°N/81.9°E, south-west of Yanam. At that time it was a very severe cyclonic storm, whose sustained wind was 125-135 kmph with gusts up to 150 kmph. Do not mix these with the later weaker intensity of 1030 IST.
The bulletin's timed forecast: it was expected to move north-north-westwards and weaken gradually. The probability was stated of it turning into a cyclonic storm within the next six hours and into a deep depression in the six hours after that. For the lower coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh, the probability was given of a storm surge about 1.0 metre above the astronomical tide for the next three hours and 0.5-1.0 metre in the six hours after that. These are the forecasts of 1145 IST, not a claim of a position that has since occurred.
The risk of flooding: the bulletin forecast a risk of moderate to high flash floods by 0530 IST on 29 October in the specified catchment areas of coastal Andhra Pradesh-Yanam, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. This does not mean confirmation of flooding in every district or every place. Local administration's directions and further IMD bulletins should be the basis of immediate decisions.
Earlier observation: confirmation at 0830 IST on 28 October of landfall being completed
Observation 0830 IST; bulletin issued 0950 IST, 28 October 2026: according to IMD's hourly bulletin number 14, Arnab's landfall process was completed and its central region came fully over land. This is the confirmation after bulletin no. 12's earlier forecast of the process completing within an hour.
The landfall and the later intensity are different: according to the bulletin, the system crossed the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coast between 0200 and 0800 IST on 28 October near 16.45°N/81.9°E, south-west of Yanam, as a very severe cyclonic storm. At that time the maximum sustained wind was 125-135 kmph with gusts up to 150 kmph. At 0830 IST it had weakened into a severe cyclonic storm; in that observation, wind of 110-120 kmph with gusts up to 135 kmph was stated.
The forecast for the next hours: the bulletin gave the estimate of movement towards north-north-west, weakening into a cyclonic storm in the next six hours and into a deep depression in the six hours after that. It stated the probability of a storm surge about 1.0 metre above the astronomical tide for the next three hours and 0.5-1.0 metre in the following six hours in the lower coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh. These are timed forecasts issued at 0950 IST, not a claim of the later actual position.
Landfall being completed does not mean the danger has ended. Local warnings, rain- and flood-related directions and further IMD bulletins should be the basis of immediate decisions. Below, the old bulletins' figures are preserved in the historical context of their own times; do not mix them with fresh figures.
Earlier, superseded: the landfall forecast of 0730 IST on 28 October
Observation 0630 IST; bulletin issued 0730 IST, 28 October 2026: according to IMD's hourly bulletin number 12, Arnab's centre was near 16.4°N/81.9°E, on the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coast, south of Yanam. Near the centre, maximum sustained wind of 115-125 kmph with gusts up to 140 kmph was stated.
Keep the landfall process and the forecast separate: the bulletin stated the probability of the landfall process being completed as the rear part of the wall-like cloud region entered the coast in the next hour. This is the forecast of 0730 IST, not the later confirmation of the process having been completed. That old section made no claim about the actual position at 0848 IST or later; the later confirmation is in the bulletin no. 14 section above.
The estimate for the next hours: there was an estimate of 115-125 kmph winds with gusts up to 140 kmph for up to two more hours in the landfall area, and a gradual decline after that. The probability was stated of a storm surge 1.0-1.5 metres above the astronomical tide for the next three hours in the lower coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh. These are timed forecasts, not measured damage or verification of the later hours.
The bulletin also gave a risk of moderate to high flash floods by 1130 IST on 28 October for some coastal Andhra-Yanam catchment areas. Local warnings, the administration's directions and further IMD bulletins alone should be the basis of immediate decisions. Below, the old bulletins' figures are preserved in the historical context of their own times; do not mix them with fresh figures.
Earlier account (27 October 2026, IMD national bulletin no. 17, issued 1240 IST; now historical): in this historical bulletin, the forecast of Arnab's landfall had been revised upward. Below it, the old account of bulletins no. 17 and 8 is preserved; the timed update of 28 October is above. At the time of that bulletin, the landfall was a forecast; do not take it as the current position of 28 October.
Earlier account (bulletin no. 8, 26 October 2026; now superseded): in national bulletin number 8 (BOB/08/2026, issued 0930 IST) released on 26 October 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that the deep depression of the Bay of Bengal had intensified into a cyclonic storm and had been given the name "Arnab" (pronounced: Arnab). At 0530 IST its centre was over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal at 15.4°N/88.9°E — about 590 km north-west of Sri Vijaya Puram (Andaman) and about 610 km south-east of Gopalpur. A red message is now issued for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts. According to the bulletin's forecast, the system could become a severe cyclonic storm by the midnight of 26 October and a very severe cyclonic storm on 27 October, and could cross the coast near Yanam between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 28 October — this is a forecast; the landfall had not yet occurred. (News context: IMD national bulletin no. 8, 26 October 2026)
Earlier forecast: bulletin no. 17 (BOB/08/2026), issued 1240 IST, 27 October 2026
- Position: the very severe cyclonic storm "Arnab" was centred at 0830 IST on 27 October over the west-central Bay of Bengal at 16.0°N/84.3°E, about 220 km south-south-east of Visakhapatnam and about 240 km east-south-east of Kakinada. It moved west-north-westwards at a speed of about 20 kmph in the previous 6 hours.
- Intensity: at 0830 IST the maximum sustained wind was 140-150 kmph (gusts 165). In the forecast table, 150-160 (gusts 180) at 1130 and 1730 IST on 27 October, then weakening to 125-135 (gusts 150) by 0530 IST on 28 October.
- Landfall forecast (revised): by the forenoon of 28 October, between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, near Yanam, as a very severe cyclonic storm, with maximum sustained wind of 125-135 kmph and gusts up to 150. In bulletin no. 8 this was 115-125 (gusts 140), that is, the forecast has been revised upward.
- The weakening forecast: a cyclonic storm (90-100) at 1730 IST on 28 October, a deep depression on 29 October, and from a depression to a well-marked low-pressure area on 30 October.
- Storm surge: at the time of landfall, an estimate of a surge 1.0 to 2.0 metres above the astronomical tide in the lower areas of Andhra Pradesh; the highest height near Kakinada and Yanam (Puducherry).
- Rainfall: in coastal Andhra Pradesh on 27 and 28 October, heavy to very heavy rain (7-20 cm) at some places and extremely heavy rain (21 cm or more) at isolated places; in Odisha on 28 October, heavy to very heavy rain at some places in south Odisha and extremely heavy rain at isolated places. The bulletin also carries date-wise warnings for Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Vidarbha, east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh.
- Wind: over the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coast, up to 125-135 kmph (gusts 150) from the morning to the forenoon of 28 October; after landfall, gradually weakening to 70-80 (gusts 90) by the evening of the 28th.
- For fishermen: advice not to venture into the west-central Bay of Bengal from 27 to 29 October.
- The colour of the warning: a red message is issued for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts.
State-level evacuation and preparedness numbers are not included in this article, because we have not opened their original government source.
Earlier, superseded: the key points of bulletin no. 8 (0930 IST, 26 October 2026)
- Current position: at 0530 IST (26 October), the cyclonic storm "Arnab" was centred at 15.4°N/88.9°E — about 590 km north-west of Sri Vijaya Puram, about 610 km south-east of Gopalpur, about 650 km east-south-east of Visakhapatnam.
- The intensity sequence (forecast): a severe cyclonic storm (SCS) by the midnight of 26 October; a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) on 27 October.
- The landfall estimate: by the forenoon of 28 October, near Yanam in the Bapatla-Visakhapatnam stretch between the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts, as a very severe cyclonic storm — maximum surface wind 115-125 kmph, gusts up to 140 kmph. (Compared to bulletin no. 5, the path has now been refined to "near Yanam".)
- Rainfall warning (bulletin no. 8): in Andhra Pradesh, extremely heavy rain at some places on 27-28 October, heavy on the 29th; in Odisha, extremely heavy at some places on the 28th, heavy to extremely heavy until the 29th; in east Telangana, extremely heavy on the 28th; in south Chhattisgarh on the 28th and in north Chhattisgarh on the 29th, extremely heavy; sequential warnings of heavy rain in Jharkhand on 28-30, in Bihar on 29-30 and in the coastal districts of Gangetic West Bengal on 28-29 October.
- Wind warning: from the morning of 27 October, wind rising along the Andhra-Yanam coast, estimated to reach 115-125 kmph with gusts up to 140 kmph by the morning of 28 October; likely to weaken gradually after landfall.
Background: IMD's Cyclone-Warning System
IMD issues national bulletins for the North Indian Ocean through the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC), New Delhi. The system's development stages are: low-pressure area, depression, deep depression, cyclonic storm (named from this stage), severe cyclonic storm, very severe cyclonic storm and the stages beyond. The warning colours — yellow (watch), orange (be prepared) and red (action) — are issued as impact-based messages; an orange message means the administration and citizens should stay in a state of preparedness. This system is BOB/08/2026 — the eighth numbered system in the Bay of Bengal this year.
In view: the system's journey (bulletin no. 5's then-current forecast — the system has since become Cyclone "Arnab" on 26 October; the latest position is above)
| Stage (estimated time) | Category | What changes |
|---|---|---|
| 25 October | Deep depression | East-central/south-east Bay of Bengal; strong winds in the Andaman region |
| 26 October morning | Cyclonic storm | Nameable level; movement towards the south-west |
| 27 October morning | Severe cyclonic storm | In the west-central bay; winds rising parallel to the coast |
| 28 October forenoon | Very severe cyclonic storm | An estimate of landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam |
Analysis (from the Mains Perspective)
The geo-scientific background of an October cyclone: in the post-monsoon (October-December) season, the Bay of Bengal's warm coastal water and weak vertical wind shear are favourable for cyclone genesis; with the progress of the north-east monsoon, these systems generally move towards the coast in a west-north-west direction.
The importance of impact-based warnings: instead of a category name, the language of "where, when, how much" (a state-wise rainfall table, the name of the coastal stretch, wind speed) gives localisation to disaster management — as soon as an orange message is issued, steps such as the deployment of NDRF/state response forces, fishing prohibitions and port signals become active.
Inter-institutional coordination: the bulletin's recipient list (NDM/NDMA, the Ministry of Home Affairs, the Railways, Doordarshan/AIR, the chief secretaries of the coastal states) is itself a map of how many parallel jurisdictions a disaster warning addresses together in India.
Examination Utility
GS-I: the physical geography of cyclone genesis — the Bay of Bengal, the post-monsoon season. GS-III: disaster management, early-warning systems, the role of IMD/NDMA.
Prelims: the order of intensity categories, cyclone naming from RSMC, the meaning of the warning colours.
Mains Practice Question
"How big a change is impact-based weather warning in the direction of disaster-risk reduction in India? Review it with reference to cyclone management in the Bay of Bengal." (250 words)
Answer Outline
Introduction: give the example of the BOB/08/2026 bulletins and the orange message.
Main Body: — (1) impact-based language: state-wise rainfall, coastal stretch, wind speed, timeline; (2) the purchase of time: a landfall estimate three days ahead, an opportunity for deployment/evacuation/fishing prohibition; (3) limitations: forecast uncertainty, last-mile communication, compliance cost.
Conclusion: describe the combination of technical accuracy + community last-mile reach as real risk reduction.
Sources
- IMD press release, 1345 IST, 30 October 2026 — remnant low-pressure area (north Chhattisgarh/east Madhya Pradesh), the south Andaman Sea's new system, the 2-3 November coastal Andhra rainfall forecast (read)
- IMD press release no. 7, 1430 IST, 29 October 2026 — remnant depression (south Chhattisgarh/south Odisha), the weakening sequence, exceptional rainfall figures (read)
- IMD national bulletin no. 30 (BOB/08/2026), 2330 IST, 28 October 2026 (read)
- Akashvani: Arnab turned into a depression, 29 October 2026 (read)
- IMD national bulletin no. 17 (BOB/08/2026), issued 1240 IST, 27 October 2026 (read) — bulletin PDF
- IMD national bulletin no. 8 (BOB/08/2026), issued 0930 IST, 26 October 2026 — intensification into a cyclonic storm, the "Arnab" naming, red message, the refined forecast path (near Yanam) — bulletin PDF
- IMD national bulletin no. 5 (BOB/08/2026), issued 1645 IST, 25 October 2026 — current position, forecast path, rain/wind warnings
The latest section (29 October) is based on IMD national bulletin no. 30 (observation of 2330 IST, 28 October) and Akashvani's report of 29 October, 2:00 PM; in Akashvani's report, IMD's bulletin was not read directly. The section before that is based on the 1030 IST observation of 28 October in IMD hourly bulletin no. 16 and the account issued at 1145 IST. The confirmation of landfall being completed, the wind at the time of landfall, the later weaker intensity and the forecasts of the next hours have been kept separate. The old figures of bulletins no. 14, 12, 17, 8 and 5 are preserved in historical context; they have not been removed or made current-time figures.
